Liverpool at Bournemouth

Familiar faces meet in this weekend’s clash between Bournemouth and Liverpool. Former Cherries boss Andoni Iraola returns to the coastal town where he guided his past team to European football in the most recent Premier League campaign. The reception for the town’s former gaffer will be interesting to see, as he is still on a 22-game unbeaten league run — 18 to finish the season at Bournemouth, where his last defeat came against Arsenal on 3 January, and four more since taking over at Liverpool. He spent three seasons at Bournemouth before Liverpool appointed him in June, finishing 12th, then ninth, then sixth, the club’s highest ever finish.

Bournemouth create, and then concede

Bournemouth sit 16th on three points, having scored six and conceded seven in four games. The underlying numbers say the goals aren’t the problem: they produced 2.55 and 2.26 xG in their two home games, and drew both. No side in the division has had more shots on target this season, and they have led in all four of their league games without winning any of them.

The defence is where it has gone wrong. They conceded 2.47 xG in last weekend’s 1-2 defeat, and 1.66 at home the week before.

I expect an extremely open game, in the sense that both teams will be looking to press high up the pitch, disrupt the opposition’s setup and attempt to turn the ball over in advantageous areas that lead to goalscoring opportunities. These players at Bournemouth are still playing with the tactics and mentality of Iraola’s football, as new manager Marco Rose has established that the players are most comfortable with that style of play.

Liverpool’s slow start, in numbers

Liverpool go into the weekend 10th on six points from four league games — one win and three draws — with six scored and four conceded. Midweek’s 3-1 win over Tottenham was in the cup, so it doesn’t move any of this.

The last away trip produced the most chaotic game of the season so far: 3.13 xG created, 1.59 conceded, and a 2-2 draw.

The mentality for today’s game needs to be win at all costs. Liverpool do not want to be heading into the international break dropping points and sitting mid-table, so that when they start playing again in October it feels as if they are already out of the title race in the autumn. They must play with controlled aggression and a steady press, and play some risky passes to ask questions of the Bournemouth defenders.

Where the danger is

Isak remains second among all Premier League forwards for non-penalty xG per 90.

Gakpo’s creation has not dropped off, and Frimpong’s key passing rate is the highest of any defender in the division — though on a small sample of minutes, which the bar below shows. He starts on the bench today.

At the other end, Marcus Tavernier has been Bournemouth’s biggest shot threat, and Evanilson leads every forward in the league for expected assists per 90.

Rayan is the biggest scoring threat to Liverpool in this game. It will be interesting to see how the Cherries play coming off their European game in San Sebastián against Real Sociedad on Thursday — a 2-1 win, their first ever in Europe, with Rayan among the scorers.

The team news

Liverpool: Alisson; Araújo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister; Gakpo, Wirtz, Barcola; Isak.

Substitutes: Mamardashvili, Gomez, Tsimikas, Muñoz, Frimpong, Gravenberch, Nyoni, Koumas, Ngumoha.

Three changes from the Fulham draw: Gakpo, Kerkez and Mac Allister come back in for Gravenberch, Muñoz and Tsimikas. Jacquet keeps his place after coming on at half time in the cup. Bradley, Leoni, Ekitike and Chiesa are all still out.

Bournemouth: Petrović; Truffert, Hill, Silva, Smith; Scott, Adams, Christie; Tavernier, Rayan; Evanilson. Milosavljević, Julián Araújo, Adli and Kroupi are unavailable.

Looks like a strong line-up from the Reds, as we have Gakpo back in the starting eleven. Gravenberch can’t seem to break back into it, as Wirtz slots in at the 10 with Macca and Sobo running the double pivot in midfield. It looks like the strongest defence we can start, and the vibes are high for this game overall. If Liverpool can play with a strong mentality towards winning the ball high up the pitch, relentless pressing and communication across the pitch, they should be able to take three points. If not, it will be an international break where many questions will be asked, and the spotlight on individuals will be under even more scrutiny than before.

Prediction

3-2 Liverpool. Barcola, Isak and Virgil score in a dramatic win.