Brentford v Liverpool: The unbeaten Bees and a blunt attack

Three days after putting six past LASK in Linz, Liverpool land at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday at 15:00 BST — 10am on the east coast — with John Brooks refereeing and Darren England on VAR. Nine points from six games has the Reds ninth, nine behind Manchester City already. Brentford are fourth, unbeaten, and have not lost a league game at home all season.

Great win away midweek, and Liverpool are back at it once again this Saturday against Brentford, a tough Premier League match away from Anfield. The squad has been rotated heavily the past two games and hopefully we will be up to the challenge against the Bees. Iraola has not confirmed whether any of the injured three — Gakpo, Szoboszlai or Isak — will be available, and we will have to see how training goes.

Brentford have not lost yet, and the shape of it matters

Keith Andrews’ side have taken 10 points from six: two wins, four draws, no defeats. Twelve scored, six conceded, and a goal difference of +6 bettered only by Brighton and Manchester City.

Split it by venue and the record is really two records. At home they have beaten Tottenham and Chelsea 3-0 apiece and drawn 1-1 with Sunderland, scoring seven and conceding one, and averaging 2.70 xG a game. On the road they have drawn all three — Leeds, Bournemouth and Aston Villa — scoring five and conceding five, with the xG dropping to 1.23 a game and the xG against rising to 1.85.

Liverpool’s season is the same story in reverse. Seven of their nine points have come away from home, where they have scored five and conceded two in three games. At Anfield they have two points from three, two goals scored and five conceded.

So the fixture pits the version of Brentford that has been excellent against the version of Liverpool that has been excellent. Whatever happens, something has to give.

A little too small a sample size to be completely sure that this is what a team like this does, but enough to respect that aspect of their game. This needs to be a game we get a point out of at the very minimum, with the aim for three. We have a tight schedule upcoming on the Prem list as well as constant midweek battles, and this will surely test the squad in the coming weeks.

Gravenberch is suspended for this match, and that means Trey Nyoni will almost certainly feature in some capacity. Barcola is coming off a superb game and I expect him to see the field as well.

The best defence nobody talks about

Brentford have conceded six goals. Their expected goals against is 9.33 — so they have given up 3.3 fewer than the chances they have allowed suggest, the fifth-biggest gap in the division. Two things are going on, and both of them are a problem for a Liverpool side that cannot score.

The first is the quality of what they concede. Brentford’s own preview puts the average shot they give up at 0.11 xG, and fewer than 7% of shots they face end up as goals — only Everton and Leeds allow a lower conversion rate. They are not blocking everything; they are making sure what gets through is a bad chance.

The second is Caoimhín Kelleher, who has played every minute of the season.

Set pieces are a dead end too. Brentford have not conceded from one all season — one of only four teams who can say that. Liverpool are another, which makes this a game where neither side should expect a cheap goal.

Rate him very highly as a keeper. He has great memories with us, and while I am sad that he left, I am happy to see him become a true number one in the Prem on a regular basis, let alone for a good team. Wouldn’t mind a few going past him this game, however.

Liverpool’s goal problem, in numbers

Seven goals in six league games, from 9.00 xG. The underperformance is two goals, but the bigger worry is what is being created in the first place: Brentford’s preview notes that Liverpool have manufactured the fewest big chances in the Premier League this season, nine.

Set pieces have produced nothing at all. Liverpool have taken corners, free kicks and set-piece situations worth 3.00 xG between them and scored from none of them — the lone dead-ball goal all season was a penalty. Headed chances tell the same story: 2.29 xG of them, no goals.

Against a side who defend their box this well, that is the difference between a point and three.

What Liverpool do have, if he is fit, is the most efficient forward in the squad. Isak has four goals in 417 league minutes from 3.73 xG.

And in Frimpong there is a full-back creating more than any other defender in the division on a per-90 basis — fresh off a goal and two assists in Linz.

Set pieces need to be addressed. We need to be creating more opportunities from corners, with different routines and setups. I hope Sobo is back for free kicks, as he is worthy of a few strikes over the season to find the back of the net.

Where Brentford will hurt you

Corners. Brentford have scored two goals from 2.85 xG of corner situations, and both of their headed goals this season came that way. They have had nine different Premier League scorers, second only to Brighton’s 10 — the threat is genuinely spread out.

Their defenders. Three of the twelve goals have come from the back four, and the numbers behind that are not a fluke. Keane Lewis-Potter takes more shots per 90 than all but five defenders in the league, and ranks seventh of 107 for non-penalty xG plus xA.

Michael Kayode is eighth of 107 defenders for goals per 90, and Nathan Collins — 196 minutes so far — sits second of 107 for shots per 90. Marking the forwards will not be enough.

Thiago, who is overdue. Igor Thiago scored 22 Premier League goals last season. This season he has one, from 3.15 xG and 14 shots — a tally that includes a missed penalty, and the fourth-biggest finishing deficit of any forward in the league with 300 minutes behind them. He is not playing badly; he is missing. That tends to correct.

One piece of luck: Kevin Schade, who has three goals from 1.96 xG and ranks seventh of 108 midfielders for goals per 90, is doubtful with a shoulder problem picked up at Villa Park. Dango Ouattara is expected to take his place. Antoni Milambo and Jannik Schuster are also carrying knocks.

Brentford are rested and will be starting a strong XI for certain. We need to not underestimate any one player on their team, and to take advantage of the spaces and our chances, and be lethal in front of the net.

Team news

Out: Ryan Gravenberch is suspended after his red card against Manchester City. Hugo Ekitike (ruptured Achilles), Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are all injured — Leoni will not return to training until the November break.

And the doubts cleared. Isak and Szoboszlai both start, having missed the previous two games with thigh and hamstring problems. As late as Thursday Iraola would only say the three were “not far” away, with the decision resting on Friday’s session.

The congestion is real: this game comes less than 72 hours after Linz, and a Champions League tie with Villarreal follows three days later.

Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson; Araújo, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Muñoz, Isak, Barcola.

Brentford (4-2-3-1): Kelleher; Kayode, Van den Berg, Ajer, Lewis-Potter; Yarmolyuk, Janelt; Anthony, Jensen, Ouattara; Thiago.

Kevin Schade does not start — the shoulder problem from Villa Park — so Ouattara takes the left-sided role, as expected. Everything above about Thiago, the corners and the full-backs applies to this XI: Lewis-Potter and Kayode are both in it.

Very strong starting XI today. Gakpo rejoins the bench as well, so all of the players who were injured are either starting or at least named among the subs. I am excited to see this game, as we should be able to control the ball for the majority of it and hopefully can get stuck in for the last half hour if need be to take a point or three.

I expect lots of wide balls to our wingers, and Muñoz and Barcola showing their pace attempting to feed Isak inside. Good to have Dominik back in the side as well. I expect the midfield to work well together today, and if we can do that and limit the set pieces that Brentford generate, we may just be able to find some joy today.

Prediction

2-2 draw, with Macca and Rio on the scoresheet.