Liverpool v Brighton: The team beating the model at both ends
Liverpool v Brighton · Premier League · 25 October 2026
Brighton arrive at Anfield on four straight wins without conceding, outscoring and out-defending their own numbers by more than any side in the league.
Brighton come to Anfield on Sunday at 14:00 GMT — 10am on the east coast — third in the table, four straight wins behind them, and plus eighteen on goal difference. Liverpool are fifth on twelve points, three days on from the 4-3 against Villarreal.
Brighton are beating their own numbers at both ends
Most good teams are good at one thing. Brighton are currently doing something stranger: they are scoring far more than their chances are worth and conceding far fewer than the chances they allow.
| Goals | xG | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton scored | 23 | 16.79 | +6.21 |
| Brighton conceded | 5 | 10.12 | −5.12 |
Data: Understat
Add those together and Brighton are 11.3 goals to the good against the model — nearly double the next team in the division. Hull are second on +5.9. Nobody else is close.
There are two honest ways to read that, and I think both are true. One is that it isn’t sustainable and the correction is coming. The other is that seven games of it is long enough that something real is going on — finishing quality, shot selection, a goalkeeper in form, or all three.
The run they’re on
Four wins, fifteen goals, none conceded:
| Result | xG | |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry (a) | 0-5 | 2.77 |
| Arsenal (h) | 3-0 | 2.11 |
| Sunderland (a) | 0-2 | 1.64 |
| Crystal Palace (h) | 5-0 | 2.25 |
Source: Understat.
Beating Arsenal 3-0 is the one that should get the attention. Their only defeat all season came at Chelsea, 4-3, in a game where they conceded 3.83 xG — the one time anyone has properly opened them up.
Eleven different scorers
There is no one to mark. Eleven Brighton players have scored in the league this season. Pascal Groß is the one pulling the strings — three goals, four assists, and nineteen key passes, more than anyone at the club.
99th percentile among midfielders in the Premier League — rank 2 of 116, minimum 216 minutes played.
703 minutes played · 2026/27 season · Data: Understat
And as at Brentford a fortnight ago, the danger isn’t confined to the forwards. Luka Vuskovic takes more shots per 90 than all but three defenders in the division, and Lewis Dunk is third of 107 defenders for finishing above his expected goals.
98th percentile among defenders in the Premier League — rank 3 of 107, minimum 216 minutes played.
709 minutes played · 2026/27 season · Data: Understat
The one soft spot, and the thing Liverpool can’t do
Brighton have conceded five league goals. Two of them came from corners, and of the 10.12 xG they have allowed all season, 3.30 of it has come from corner situations. Against a side this hard to break down in open play — three open-play goals conceded in seven games — the dead ball is the obvious way in.
Which runs straight into Liverpool’s problem.
Seven games, 3.34 xG worth of corners, free kicks and set-piece situations, and not one goal from any of them. The same number was in the Brentford preview a fortnight ago and nothing has changed since.
Liverpool still can’t win at Anfield
Ten of Liverpool’s twelve points have come away from home. At Anfield, in the league, it reads: 2-2 against Forest, 0-0 against Fulham, 0-3 against City. Two points from three games, two goals scored, five conceded.
Europe has been the exception — Atlético and Villarreal were both beaten here — but the league record at home is the single worst thing about Liverpool’s season, and it comes up against the form team in the division.
What Liverpool do have is the best creator in the league on current form, and the most efficient finisher in the squad.
97th percentile among midfielders in the Premier League — rank 4 of 116, minimum 216 minutes played.
630 minutes played · 2026/27 season · Data: Understat
95th percentile among forwards in the Premier League — rank 2 of 30, minimum 216 minutes played.
586 minutes played · 2026/27 season · Data: Understat
Team news
Out: Dominik Szoboszlai is still not ready — training outside on his own and not with the group. Jeremie Frimpong is a longer-term absence with the muscle injury, and Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni remain out.
Doubtful: Víctor Muñoz, who took a knock in the first half at Brentford and missed the Villarreal game. Iraola said it was too early to tell.
Back: Bradley Barcola is available.
Brighton are without Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson, Femi Azeez and Stefanos Tzimas, with Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer, Pascal Struijk and Zadok Yohanna all doubtful. They played in the Conference League on Thursday; Liverpool’s European game was Tuesday.
Iraola on the opposition: Brighton “are doing incredibly well” and “deserved all the praise they are getting,” calling them “one of the best teams” without the ball and saying Liverpool “have to be at our very best.”
On Gravenberch, after the right-back experiment on Tuesday: “he’s like a number eight for me,” though he can also play right-back, ten or centre-back. “For me, he’s very valuable.”
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson; Araújo, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.
Substitutes: Mamardashvili, Gomez, Endo, Chiesa, Tsimikas, Nyoni, McConnell, Koumas, Ngumoha.
This is the strongest side available. After Tuesday’s heavy rotation, Wirtz, Isak and Barcola all come back in, Kerkez returns at left-back ahead of Tsimikas, and Gravenberch starts in midfield rather than at right-back — “he’s like a number eight for me,” as Iraola put it this week. Rio Ngumoha, Koumas and Nyoni all drop to the bench after starting in Europe.
Prediction
I expect a high-scoring affair here, with Wirtz, Isak and Barcola all getting on the scoresheet — 3-3.
All three of them start, which is the best possible news for that call.