Liverpool v Chelsea: Red vs Blue

Carabao Cup fourth round, Anfield, 20:00 GMT — 4pm on the east coast. Chelsea are the visitors three days after Brighton were beaten here, and Opta’s pre-match model makes Liverpool narrow favourites to go through at 52.6%.

Iraola has called this competition an opportunity to win his first trophy since taking the job in the summer. He has also said there will definitely be changes.

We would love to see a Liverpool squad that is rotated but also includes some of our young new faces that can go after this weakened Chelsea team, with an opportunity to send the team into a quarter-final tie down the road. Even with multiple rotations I do believe that Liverpool will have enough to get over the line in this match, although I do believe that Chelsea will give us a hard test at our ground this evening.

The most chaotic team in the division

If you like goals, you have picked the right tie. Chelsea’s league games have produced 32 goals in eight matches — four per game, more than any other side in the Premier League.

Their results read like a highlight reel with no editing. Won 3-2 at Fulham, won 4-3 at home to Brighton, lost 2-1 at Arsenal, drew 2-2 with Hull, lost 3-0 at Brentford, won 5-1 against Bournemouth, won 2-0 at Everton — and then lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham on Saturday. Four wins, a draw and three defeats, with five of the eight producing goals at both ends.

The underlying numbers explain some of it. Chelsea have scored 17 from 12.38 xG — the second-best finishing in the league behind Brighton — while conceding 15 from 13.52 xGA. They finish better than they should and defend slightly worse than they should, which is a recipe for exactly the kind of scoreline their season has produced.

Chelsea have not been short in creating chances or scoring goals. I believe pre-Tottenham match their Stamford Bridge aggregate was 11-6 for them against opposition. I expect a high scoring affair at Anfield today, specifically with defensive subs in. I believe that this will be a fairly wide open game, in a sense that it could be the midfields that run the game and control and dictate the ball and possession for a majority of the time.

Who can hurt Liverpool

The good news comes in two parts. João Pedro is out — Xabi Alonso has confirmed a thigh problem that will keep him out for a few weeks. He is Chelsea’s most dangerous player by a distance: five goals and three assists, third of 30 forwards for goals per 90 and second for assists per 90. Losing him matters.

And Cole Palmer is suspended. He was sent off at home to Tottenham on Saturday, and because a red-card ban carries across the Premier League and the domestic cups, he serves it tonight rather than at the weekend. Chelsea’s highest-volume shooter — sixth of 116 midfielders for shots per 90 — does not play at Anfield.

Their two biggest attacking threats, missing on the same night.

What remains is still serious.

Morgan Rogers has been the most creative forward in the division on a per-90 basis — first of 30 for key passes — and is second among forwards for finishing above his expected goals.

And Pedro Neto, who Understat lists as a defender, is top of all 107 defenders in the league for non-penalty xG plus xA per 90. That is the third week running this blog has had to point out that the opposition’s goal threat comes partly from its back line.

With Palmer out, the question was who came in. The answer turned out to be Danny Welbeck, with Estêvão — 36 league minutes all season, too few to rank him against anyone — left out of the eleven.

Depends on the line-up, but even Chelsea’s squad players can make an impact. We need to be on our best behaviour as it will surely get heated at certain points in the match as well — CP is suspended after his red card against Tottenham on Saturday, which takes a real edge off them. If we keep our heads and get stuck in, I believe that we will have more than enough to overcome Chelsea today.

The captain comes back

Jordan Henderson is a Chelsea player, and he is on course to walk out at Anfield in blue.

He has two goals from 0.31 xG this season, which puts him third of 116 midfielders for scoring above his numbers. Not a volume threat at this stage of his career — but the sort of player who will enjoy this evening a great deal.

Hendo should get an outstanding reception in the Blues uniform, and I hope that the Liverpool home crowd honour the former captain well, as he was vital in many of our victories and I have many fond memories of him in a Reds kit.

Team news

From Iraola’s press conference on Tuesday:

Wirtz should play. He twisted his ankle against Brighton, but Iraola was clear: “He was quite fine, Florian — I’m quite optimistic that he will be available.”

Szoboszlai and Muñoz are uncertain. Iraola said of the pair that “it’s going to be more difficult than Florian.” Muñoz has been out since taking a knock at Brentford; Szoboszlai has not played since his hamstring recurrence.

Jayden Danns was mentioned — one to watch for in the team sheet, given how much Iraola has leaned on the academy in cup and European ties this season.

Still out: Jeremie Frimpong with the muscle injury, plus the long-term absences of Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni.

Chelsea are without João Pedro, and Cole Palmer is banned for this one. Reports conflict on whether Emmanuel Emegha is available — the club suggests yes, at least one preview lists him as injured.

Iraola and Xabi Alonso are friends, and Iraola said the two of them will probably find a few minutes to talk after the game.

Just general info for the most part. The team has been decently injury-plagued so far, so having no Wirtz would hurt, specifically with the form he is on.

Where the two sides actually stand

	Liverpool	Chelsea
League position	4th	5th
Goals scored	11	17
xG	11.83	12.38
Goals conceded	8	15
xGA	10.70	13.52

Source: Understat, Premier League only — the cup rounds aren’t covered.

Liverpool arrive off a 2-0 against Brighton that finally produced a home league win. The last round here was the 3-1 against Tottenham in September.

Cup ties can go any which way, specifically when you rotate heavily. Let’s hope Iraola gets it right and we have lads off the bench that can change the game if need be.

The starting XI

Liverpool: Mamardashvili; Gomez, Araújo, Van Dijk, Tsimikas; Nyoni, Gravenberch; Ngumoha, McConnell, Gakpo; Koumas.

Substitutes: Alisson, Endo, Jacquet, Wirtz, Isak, Mac Allister, Chiesa, Barcola, Chambers.

Chelsea: Penders; Acheampong, Fofana, Lacroix, Gusto; Caicedo, Lavia, Henderson; Neto, Rogers; Welbeck.

Chelsea’s substitutes were not published with the team sheet.

Iraola said there would definitely be changes. He meant it.

Mamardashvili starts and Alisson drops to the bench — the clearest signal that this is a rotation night. Gomez comes in at right-back, and Jérémy Jacquet, who started in Spain, is among the substitutes.

The midfield is the story. Trey Nyoni alongside Ryan Gravenberch as the two, James McConnell ahead of them between Rio Ngumoha and Cody Gakpo, and Lewis Koumas leading the line. Ngumoha came through Chelsea’s academy before joining Liverpool, so he faces his old club — eight days after setting up two goals against Villarreal on the night this blog made him man of the match.

What the sheet says about Tuesday’s press conference

Wirtz is fit, but rested. Iraola was “quite optimistic” and he was right — Wirtz is in the squad, on the bench, there if the tie needs him.

Szoboszlai and Muñoz did not make it. “More difficult than Florian” turned out to mean not at all. Neither is among the nine.

No Jayden Danns. He came up in the press conference but is not in the squad.

And then the bench, which is the real point. Wirtz, Isak, Barcola and Mac Allister are all sitting on it — four players who started or scored inside the last fortnight, held back for the hour when a cup tie usually turns.

And Chelsea’s sheet

Jordan Henderson starts. Not a substitute appearance, not a late cameo — the former captain walks out at Anfield in the Chelsea eleven.

Pedro Neto starts too, and that is the one to watch. The player Understat files as a defender, top of all 107 in the league for non-penalty xG plus xA per 90, is in a wide role in front of a back three. Everything written above about Chelsea’s goal threat coming from its back line arrives tonight with Neto pushing forward from exactly there.

Morgan Rogers starts as well, so the division’s most creative forward on a per-90 basis is on the pitch from the first minute. Welbeck leads the line, Moises Caicedo and Roméo Lavia hold the middle, and Estêvão does not start.

Chelsea’s substitutes had not been published anywhere by the time this went up, so there is no bench listed above. A guess is worse than a gap.

Prediction

3-2. Goals by Koumas, Rio and Virgil get us through.